SNB HAS AN INCREASED WILLINGNESS TO INTERVENE IN FX MARKETS
June 18, 2026 · Nitsan
The Swiss National Bank signals a greater willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to influence the Swiss Franc.
The Swiss National Bank keeps rates unchanged at 0% and signals readiness to intervene in the currency market
The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%, in line with market expectations. However, the main focus shifted to the accompanying statement, in which the central bank emphasized its increased willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary.
The message is clear: the SNB does not want an excessively strong Swiss franc.
A stronger franc hurts Swiss exporters and puts downward pressure on inflation, making it more difficult to maintain price stability. As a result, the SNB may intervene by selling francs and purchasing foreign currencies if the local currency appreciates too rapidly.
The technical outlook continues to play out as expected
In our previous analysis, we highlighted the breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern and the subsequent pullback toward the moving averages, which were expected to act as dynamic support.
The market has since behaved exactly as anticipated.
After retesting the moving averages, USDCHF printed a strong bullish candle directly from the support zone, reinforcing the positive momentum.
The pair is now approaching the previous high around 0.8042, which represents the first target of the current move.
A breakout above this level could confirm the formation of a new higher high and pave the way for further upside momentum.
Positive swap rates continue to support long positions
The interest rate differential between the United States and Switzerland remains significant, allowing long USDCHF positions to continue benefiting from positive rollover swaps.
The combination of favorable carry, the SNB’s dovish message, and the constructive technical setup strengthens the case for additional gains.
The memory of the 2015 SNB shock still influences the market
The threat of SNB intervention is far from theoretical.
In January 2015, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly abandoned the EURCHF floor of 1.20, triggering one of the most dramatic currency events in modern financial history.
The Swiss franc surged sharply within minutes, causing substantial losses for traders and brokers worldwide. Several brokerage firms suffered severe financial damage, while some became insolvent.
Since then, market participants have taken every signal from the SNB regarding potential intervention very seriously.
Unlike the Japanese yen, many traders and institutional investors are reluctant to position themselves against the Swiss National Bank when it signals a willingness to act.
Looking ahead
As long as USDCHF remains supported by its key moving averages, the focus remains on the 0.8042 resistance area.
A sustained break above this level could accelerate bullish momentum and open the door to further gains in the short and medium term.
Disclaimer: This article reflects personal opinions and analysis only and does not constitute investment advice, investment marketing, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading in financial markets involves risk and may result in losses.
